Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Increase Fuel Price! Must or Revenge?

Government announce fix fuel price will increase RM0.78 from RM1.92 to RM2.70. It is 40.625% increment. Diesel price increase RM1. It will direct hit to lot of the businesses and influence the price of goods. First, the transports and utilities such as electric and water (which need fuel energy) price will be increase. Then this will lead other sector to increase their products prices as their cost increases.

Recently food shortage, food price spike up at least 30%-50% within 6 months. Then it is nature disaster in few regions, cause the demand of building material increase. This will push up the price of building material. Conservative predict it will increase at least 20%. Government also plan to let the fuel price free float in the market on August which will be RM4 in the current crude oil price. It means almost 100% increase in 6 months.

Since government has also announce the tariff of the electric power will increase, mean almost everything will increase. There is one problem, which is I believe no company willing to increase their stuff salary by 50%-100% in 6 month right? So if salary not even increase at least constant grow while all the things out there increase by exponential grow, lot of the labours, worker, stuff and citizens will be in trouble.

Malaysia economy is previously in the close and protected environment. Government refuse to let them compete with other people because it knows their people lack of abilities to survive. It is similar to a plants in a green house. In the green house, there is not competitors, no parasite, no virus or bacteria, enough resources etc. Suddenly this plant move to the out site open environment, it's faith will be undetermined. It is now in the uncharted territory.

Looking at other country hitting by the high oil price and food price. The country will be in the disorder situation. The security of the society will fall due to the reason that lot of people is poor and starve. The society sentiment will be worry and unhappy. Political unstable is factor come out with these kind of decision which will hit to the economy, development, society and security.

Government action to increase everything with this speed is due to the must or revenge? Since they election result out and party Barisan National lost lot of the seat, there are lots of the unhappy decisions announce one by one. Look closely for this fuel price issue, Malaysia is a nett fuel exporter, this means when crude oil price increase, country will gain more then loss with the high oil price. No matter how the citizen in the country use the oil, it will not influence the profit or loss of the country. It will just reduce the profit country can get. Now the first question is, is this Party loss other income sources to earn money when they loss their power in lot of the places?

When prime minister said increase fuel price is a must, and he promise he will still look for a way to help those who really need for the fuel subsidy. The second question is why the public transport such as bus fare still increase? Does it means these buses are also use by rich?

The rumour say government is thinking to send the fuel rebate money to those needed by postal. If this is true, third question is how are they going to control? Those money will go to which kind of "needed criteria"? (supporter, income, expenses, races, religion, etc ... doubt)

I know long term is a need to increase, but is it really a must by using this speed and methods?

The market sentiment guess will be not good. The selling pressure due to the unclear of the country future.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

KLCI in Bursa Malaysia open down 20 point.

Anonymous said...

Was it a trick? Government want to make the disorder and chaos situation then use military take over the parliament, use army ruling?